GIMMICKLESS OSCAR PREVIEW 2010-11: DAY 4 - THE BIG AWARDS

Best Picture
• “Black Swan” – This movie is like the ballet version of Raging Bull – claustrophobic to watch, brilliant…One of the best movies I’ve seen. I never want to see it again.
• “The Fighter” – 2 hours better spent re-watching Gatti-Ward I.
• “Inception” – If this had been released as a holiday awards contender rather than a summer blockbuster, it might actually be in the conversation to win. If it has a weakness, it was some of the acting. Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Ellen Page have that ‘permanent teenager’ look that belongs in Scream 4, not high-level action.
• “The Kids Are All Right” – A Lifetime movie dressed up by the presence of real actors and passed through to this round as the token LGBT nomination.
• “The King's Speech” – Something tells me that the royal family is secretly funding all of these sympathetic portrayals of the current royal line to cover up their collusion in controlling the world drug trade. Maybe that something is a Lyndon Larouche pamphlet.
• “127 Hours” – The lesson is…update your facebook status before you go camping.
• “The Social Network” – If this were an award for best preview, this is the movie of the decade. Perfectly enjoyable, I doubt this is a film that has much staying power as anything other than how we see Mark Zuckerberg for the rest of his obscenely wealthy life.
• “Toy Story 3” – I’m that guy that didn’t love this movie. Pixar’s genius comes from its boundless creativity. I’m impressed that they’ve squeezed so much juice out of this orange, but I prefer their more exotic flavors.
• “True Grit” – I am bound to thoroughly enjoy any Coen Brothers movie, so I’ll focus on my criticisms. I found this one jumped around too much in tone between their silly movies and their serious movies. It also seemed to have been trimmed too close – some of the actors deserved more screen time and there aren’t enough of their trademark set-pieces in the back half of the film. Also it ends on an unnecessarily flat note that I can’t be convinced to like - their third consecutive abrupt and unsatisfying ending and the one with the least artistic purpose behind it.
• “Winter's Bone" – I guess we have to keep nominating dramas or no one will ever make any. A good solid film but nothing more.

SHOULD WIN: Black Swan
WILL WIN: The Social Network – I’m going for the dark horse candidate because I just have to hope that somehow Hollywood’s destructive addiction to British period drama cannot long endure.

Directing
• “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
• “The Fighter” David O. Russell
• “The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
• “The Social Network” David Fincher
• “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan. Inception was directorial origami. Of these 5, I’d say Aronofsky deserves to win.
WILL WIN: David Fincher – I’m a fan, he’s due.

The Daniel Day Lewis Actor in a Leading Role Award
• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful” is Hispanic and brooding in that foreign language film no one saw. This nomination screams, “token diversity nomination.” Someone get Denzel out of his latest train-related film and into a real role. Mr. Bardem already won for No Country and he’s married to Penelope Cruz so I can’t imagine he’ll be heartbroken when he loses.
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit” is the John Wayne Dude. No matter where he goes or who he plays, no matter how layered up with scotch and grit, Jeff Bridges will always be The Dude.
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network” is the snarky kid from Zombieland…and about to be the richest man in the world. This is a script-derived nomination, you can’t tell if this guy is acting. I have no clue where he will be in 10 years – he’s one of those people you can never picture as a grown man even though he’s probably 30 already. He should be in Scream 4 too.
• LL Col Firth in “The King's Speech” is an unstoppable freight-train of Oscarness – English, royalty, disability. Bonus points for being named Colin. I do not understand why all of my female friends are in love with Colin Firth. To me, he looks a lot like a young Michael Caine and I expect the same career arc.
• James Franco in “127 Hours” is a man trapped under a rock…left on screen, alone for roughly an hour, Franco carries an unsellable concept. I have to be honest, I thought he was career-killing abysmal in the Spider Man movies. I was wrong - he's kind of cool and likable.

SHOULD WIN: James Franco
WILL WIN: Colin Firth

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Christian Bale in “The Fighter” is the lead as a cracked out boxer with a regional accent, but gets called the supporting actor because the movie was technically about Markie Mark’s character.
• John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone” is a much less famous actor also playing a cracked out man with a regional accent.
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town” may or may not be cracked out, has a regional accent, and robs banks.
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right” is wandering around in a post-cracked-out daze when he discovers his sperm was used to inseminate two lesbians. Queue emotional diarrhea and confused looks that could be interpreted to be a California accent.
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech” is not cracked out, but is Australian, so he kind of acts like it.

SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale
WILL WIN: Geoffrey Rush – I figure Christian Bale is generally disliked.

The Meryl Streep Actress in a Leading Role Award
• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right” is unnervingly convincing as the…more masculine member of a lesbian couple. I’m not up on what the allowable term is. Bull-lesbian? Blesbian? Anyways, if I’m Warren Beatty, I have to be wondering.
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole” is someone that old academy voters want to see show up in a dress.
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone” is affecting as a tough girl in a rough place.
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” is deeply affecting as a soft girl in a rough place.
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine” is in this year’s well-regarded love story movie.

SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman
WILL WIN: Natalie Portman.

Actress in a Supporting Role
• Amy Adams in “The Fighter” is unnervingly convincing as a semi-trashy bartendress. I’m impressed, definitely not Enchanted.
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech” imbues an aimless depiction of a dull queen with her limitless screen presence.
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” is understandably convincing as a semi-trashy mom.
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit” is inexplicably named a supporting actress in a movie that’s about her. Anyways, a sharp performance in a year full of strong female performances.
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom” is supposed to be good in the movie that Netflix didn’t deliver in time.

SHOULD WIN: Steinfeld.
WILL WIN: Jacki Weaver. Has that indie buzz, plus she’s English.