Gearing Up For Oscars

I want to preface my 2005 comments by discussing at length 2004. Maybe this will help us predict which of the crappy movies nominated will win. * denotes victory

2004 was the year of the shabby sex farce in the sense that never before has the shabby sex farce been so broadly represented, even though the shabby sex farce really can't compete with social issues and Hollywood royalty. Anyway, congradulations for Closer Sideways Kinsey for participating. Ahem:

Best Film/Director:
- Scorcese's Flick
- Eastwood's Women's Lib/Social Issues Movie*
- E! Hollywood Story/Token Black (Ray)
- Shabby Sex Farce for Snobs (The Wine Movie)
- A Good Movie (Finding Neverland)

Notice here that 3 key issues outdid 2 - Hollywood royalty+women's lib+assisted suicide was too much for E Hollywood True Story+Minorities and Hollywood royalty+historical biopic.

Best Actor:
- Token Black+Set in 3rd world (Cheadle)
- Good performance in good movie (Depp)
- Actor in Scorcese biopic (DiCaprio)
- Eastwood directing self in how to growl (Eastwood)
- E! Hollywood True Story+Token Black Guy (Foxx)*

Important note here - yes Foxx was better than Cheadle. But note also that local beats international when another key element is present (token black guy).

Best Actress:
- Anette Bening
- Whodat in Saywhat?
- Saywho in Whatdat?
- Eastwood's women's lib character*
- True Love Triumphs; intellectual style (Winslet)

Whodat's are far more common for the ladies. Maybe it's the smaller window of being attractive or maybe it's because most Hollywood writers are men. Anyway, this was over before it began - Eastwood PLUS women's lib - no competition.

Supporting Actor:
- Scorsese Film
- Shabby Sex Farce for Snobs
- Token Black Guy
- Hollywood Royalty+Eastwood+Token Black Guy (Extra Points for Growling)*
- Shabby Sex Farce for Snobs

Another slam dunk. Black Hollywood Royalty Growling.

Supporting Actress:
- Scorsese PLAYING Hollywood royalty*
- Sex Farce for Snobs
- Sex Farce for Snobs
- Sex Farce for Snobs
- Token Black Woman+Set in 3rd world

Again, sex farces, don't get too uppity. It doesn't matter that Cate Blanchette STANK! She was playing Catherine Hepburn in a Scorsese movie. Again, take note minority whodats - domestic issues trump foreign ones.

So, let's recap.
- Hollywood royalty matters. And there are definitely different levels of royalty: Eastwood tops Scorsese in a knife fight.
- E! Hollywood story is important, but being black is more important
- Sex farces shouldn't get out of their britches. If you want to get an award for a movie about sex, it can't be funny. (Think Monster...hell, just look at the women's movies.)
- It's nice to be married to Warren Beatty.

Anyway, here's the real top 10-list from 2004. I'll be going to a few more 2005 movies, and then weighing in on this year's Oscars with bold predictions based solely on the conclusions reached above.

BEST OF 2004:
1. Finding Neverland
2. Anchorman
3. Spider Man 2
4. Shaun of the Dead
5. Ocean's Twelve
6. Napoleon Dynamite
7. The Passion of the Christ (What of it?)
8. National Treasure (What of it?)
9. Harry Potter 3
10. Troy (Narrowly beats out Team America)