2007 Annual Oscars Preview

So here we go with my annual completely false predictions and dead-on should-have-beens. First a recap of my reviews of the movies I wished I'd seen last year:

The Whale & The Squid - Overly overtly intellectual, tedious
Wallace&Gromit - What's with the stark sexual innuendos littered all over the last 15 minutes?
Grizzly Man - Cool bear footage. Solid film.
Corpse Bride - Eh.
Three Burials of Melky Estrada - Abominable preachy social issues film.

On to the predictions:

We'll be using my technique of totally disregarding the talent involved. Since I've not seen all the movies, I will nonetheless be issuing weighty pronouncements on which movies and performances are the best.

I'll then follow with my top 10 for the year and other awards including biggest snubs and most ridiculous nomination of the year. Stay tuned for my review of my embarrassingly bad predictions.

* Means Will Win
! Means Should Win (Of those nominated)
& Means Did Not See

BEST PICTURE
*& The Social Issues Ensemble Movie, aptly described by a friend as a globo-faux intellectual's wet dream. (Babel)
Semi-Annual Scorcese entry (The Departed)
&Annual Eastwood entry (Letters from Iwo)
Indy Social Issues Pic (Little Miss Sunshine)
! The Queen

The Departed winning wouldn't be a bad thing, but I figure Scorcese's going to get the award for director and the movie itself isn't that meaty, just entertaining. Eastwood wins too often; if he wins this time, they may rename the award after him and just start giving it to him every year, even if he doesn't make a movie. Given the rate at which he's churning movies out, he could be competing just against himself: "And now, the winner of best Clint Eastwood film..." That leaves the indy pic, which really isn't that good except for the last scene, and which suffers from being a comedy, even if it tries to play depression and failure for laughs. And finally The Queen, which happens to be a fantastic, taught, well-acted, well-written movie as lacking in political snobbery as it is chock full of depth. In short, it has no chance.
BIGGEST SNUBS: Since I realize my top 10 below has a lot of action and comedy, I will just include films that might actually fall under potential Oscar winning genres - United 93, The Prestige, Thank You For Smoking.

BEST ACTOR:
&!-Leonardo DiCaprio plays a funny accent social issues vagabond.
&-Ryan Gosling plays a crusading teacher and a drug addict
&-Peter O'Toole plays a retiring legend trotting out for a victory lap.
-Will Smith plays a man who wants to make a lot of money and who never plays the race card.
&-Forrest Whitaker plays the lovable last King of Scotland (A black king? Why not, it worked in Blazing Saddles.)

Leo apparently pissed on Speilberg while he was visiting Aushwitz or something and will never win anything ever. He also comes across as a weiner but hey, he's supposed to be good in this. I simply can't take Forrest Whitaker seriously. One of those hospital shows breathlessly introduced him as "one of the most respected actors of his generation," and I thought, "By whom? His mother? When did this take place." Was there some subtext to Panic Room I wasn't picking up on? Ryan Gosling is a nobody but really comes up big mixing 2 Oscar favorites - inspiring teacher AND drug addict. If Johnny Depp had taken this role he'd already have a speech ready. Peter O'Toole shouldn't win because I don't want him to die navigating the stairs. And Will Smith has no shot in hell. As he's sitting dejected in his little picture-in-picture screen, he'll be thinking, "I should have played the race card."
SNUBS: Aaron Eckhardt (TYFS), Christian Bale (Prestige), Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat), Several Individuals from The Departed who were apparently forgotten because no one could tell who was a lead and who was supporting except for Mark Wahlberg, and Daniel Craig (Casino Royale). In fact I would replace the entire nomination list. Eckhardt was brilliant, Bale is always brilliant and additionally really showed up Hugh Jackman, who is pretty darn good, Cohen freaking lived this ridiculous character but is hurt by the fact that he'd already created it, The Departed speaks for itself, Nicholson, Damon, Leo all deserved a nod, and Craig stepped to the Bond plate and knocked the role out of the park. Oh, and Keanu for A Scanner Darkly. Just kidding. He goes through the whole movie with that "Whoa" look on his face, just begging to drop it in.

Actress:
&Penelope Cruz is pretty (Volver)
&Dame Judi Dench annual nomination (Notes on a Scandal)
*!Helen Mirren plays The Queen
Meryl Streep annual nomination (Devil Wears Prada)
&Kate Winslet semi-annual indy pic nomination (Little Children)

I rarely care about this award because usually the roles are so weak. For purely aesthetic reasons, Penelope can win all the awards she wants, but she does do shampoo commercials. That's a real sticking point because so do Andie MacDowell and Lark Voories. Streep was very good in an otherwise dull movie. She and Dench deserve their annual re-up more than Eastwood does. Interestingly, the only non-star nominated is the one who should absolutely win. Here's hoping Ms. Mirren starts taking some of Dame Dench's roles so she can pace herself a bit. I can't get enough classy English ladies in my movies. I wonder if Ms. Mirren will be "damed" by the queen she played.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Arkin has about 6 lines of dialogue (Little Miss Sunshine)
& Jackie Earl Haley is a complete unknown and may not have been informed yet of his nomination (Little Children)
&Djimon Hounsou is an aggrieved African (Blood Diamond - ever notice that this guy plays every African regardless of nationality. Africa has more genetic diversity than the rest of the world, from 7-foot Masais to pygmies but apparently everyone from Cote D'Voire to Lesotho looks exactly the same)
&!* Eddie Murphy is in a musical
Mark Wahlberg is here because he's the only actor in The Departed who couldn't possibly be considered a lead.

I'm sorry but Oscars just don't go to Mark Wahlberg. See Dillon, Matt 2006. Alan Arkin's character was well written, had little screen time, and honestly could have been better played by any number of old-timers, including several of my old neighbors. He's the most forgettable part of that cast. Eddie Murphy is the big name, has the race card in his pocket, and jumped out of comedy to do a musical. He even sang. He gets the spirit award.
SNUBS: Bill Nighy for Davey Jones in Pirates 2. That's an impressive creation. John C. Reilly for The Magic Man in The Ballad of Ricky Bobby - extra points for the ad libbing. Al Gore's political ambitions in An Inconvenient Truth - it was like a recurring cameo that made no sense with the rest of the movie. And boy was it a stretch.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
&Adriana Barraza is an aggrieved Mexican babysitter
&Cate Blanchett is a star playing a smaller role in an indy pic
!Abigail Breslin is the ubiquitous Jerry Maguire Kid, extra points for hysterical strip tease
*&Jennifer Hudson plays herself
&Rinko Kikuchi has no lines of dialogue (I think) but is likely an aggrieved Japanese mute.

I wonder what Simon Cowell thinks of Hudson's performance.
SNUBS: Eva Green as a great Bond dame, Vera Farmiga pulling off a poorly written character in The Departed, Mia Kirschner as Elizabeth Short in the atrocious The Black Dahlia.

Director
Basically Scorcese is going to win so there's no point in even looking at this category. His peers Speilberg, Coppola, and George Lucas (zuh?) have been selected as the presenters, which probably means that they're not giving the award to Paul Greengrass. I'd guess Eastwood would replace Lucas if he weren't bound by contractual obligations to be nominated for this category. Speilberg was nice enough not to force any schlock on us this year, perhaps in deference to Marty's chances. Coppola's an obvious choice since he's responsible for the 2 best movies ever. George Lucas was also chosen for his venerable career dedicated to the art of cinema. I couldn't write that line without a chuckle. Anyways, 3 makes it more important than 2, but who else is there? James Cameron was unavailable because he just stumbled on Jesus's tomb. I can picture him climbing a top it and yelling, "I'm the king of the world." And Kenneth Turan has already panned his discovery in several articles I'm sure.

Foreign Language Film
Pan's Labyrinth was way overhyped. The saddest thing is that it's so obvious while watching how the movie could have been made into something with depth (make the father/officer sympathetic) but oh well. And what's w/ Canada having a nomination? They don't talk that funny. Leo's Blood Diamond accent is more foreign than aboot.

Adapted Screenplay
What is Borat doing here? The movie was not an adaptation, nor did it have a screenplay.

Original Screenplay
This is probably where Sunshine gets its award but the Queen writer deserves it more.

Animated Feature
I'm so passionate about this category, I can't even comment.

Art Direction - Pirates 2 was such an aesthetic marvel that it'd be a crime if it didn't win. That said, I love the look that was cultivated in the Prestige. Naturally neither will win.

Cinematography - I actually say Children of Men on this one. The continuous shot sequences were astounding pieces of work. If only they'd told me why they weren't having babies.

Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Film Editing - Why are these categories not handled during the technical awards show the previous day? Anyways, I hope Apocalypto wins, opening the door for the breathless pause before the acceptance speeches, hoping for some reference to Mel. The anti-semitism is the easy route...I'm hoping for an "angel tits" reference.

Original Score - Pirates had a great one. A general plea - musical scores are some of the best music being created. That's how bad pop music is. I'd blame Cold Play, but they just took the whinier Radiohead and made it less avante guard.

Original Song - Ugh.

Costume - How can Devil Wears Prada not win? Wouldn't that be a total indictment of the film, if a movie about defining high fashion can't even have the best costumes?

Documentary Feature - I think the category title is unfair. Documentaries are now propaganda films. That's not necessarily a bad thing, propaganda is a form of art. But why keep pretending?

Makeup - Obviously a real shot for Apocalypto here. My question is that there are 3 nominations here, and one of them is Click. Click? The Adam Sandler remote control movie? I didn't see this movie. Does anyone know how this happened? Was it a prank write-in campaign?

Visual Effects - Again, Pirates 2 is a lock. Nothing else should have been nominated.

THIS YEAR'S SNUBS:
OVERHYPED BLOCKBUSTER DIVISION: In a tight race with Dreamgirls' Best Pic snub, I give it to Flags of Our Fathers. Oh it stank and Letters to Iwo gave them an out, but nonetheless, any loss for Eastwood is an upset.
SPIELBERG DIVISION: The New World. Terrence Malick's rambling nature films with some sort of plot going on in the foreground, occasionally spliced with empty voice over usually are golden for a nod. What happened? Colin Farrel?
SEQUEL DIVISION: Sly Stallone for anything in Rocky Balboa. The guy was trying to say good bye. Not even an Oscar nod for lifetime soundtrack achievement. Now he's going to make the nightmare real and do Shakespeare. I can sense it. Hey, if Keanu can not only do Shakespeare but also Philip K. Dick, Stallone can do anything. I personally am rooting for boxing announcer.
SOCIAL ISSUES DIVISION: Children of Men - you have to make the commentary more explicit if you're hoping to illicit a nomination. And tell us why they're not having babies.
ANTI-ANTI SEMITISM DIVISION: Mel Gibson. If a guy can't curse out the Jews and then call the arresting officer "angel tits" and still get his bizarre dead language film nominated then the terrorists have won.
MOST RIDICULOUS NOMINATION: Click for anything.

TOP TEN FILMS:
Honorable Mention: Dave Chappelle's Block Party - Even though the movie's not good, the concert got rained on, and Eric Badou's afro-wig came off, totally erasing her street cred, the man got the Fugees back together. Damn Lauryn Hill is good.
10. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby - this film basically pisses excellence.
9. Inside Man
8. Pirates 2 - A very underrated film. I think it's because no one else knows how to play Liar's Dice.
7. Casino Royale - This was the best Bond movie I've seen.
6. United 93 - Get over the $ thing. Nobody called Michael Moore a war profiteer but he's far more guilty and doesn't have the decency to give 10% of the gate to the folks whose tragedy he's making $ off of.
5. The Prestige - Dark, original, complex. It reminds me of good Hitchcock with all of the tone shifts, the way it forces you to change your mind about characters.
4. The Departed - I know, I know. It's good. But there are several sections that drag and the Farmiga/DiCapprio relationship seems to lack something other than being a contrived plot device. Plus it was a relatively good year for movies.
3. The Queen
2. Thank You For Smoking
1. Borat