Thursday, February 24, 2011

GIMMICKLESS OSCAR PREVIEW 2010-11: DAY 4 - THE BIG AWARDS

Best Picture
• “Black Swan” – This movie is like the ballet version of Raging Bull – claustrophobic to watch, brilliant…One of the best movies I’ve seen. I never want to see it again.
• “The Fighter” – 2 hours better spent re-watching Gatti-Ward I.
• “Inception” – If this had been released as a holiday awards contender rather than a summer blockbuster, it might actually be in the conversation to win. If it has a weakness, it was some of the acting. Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Ellen Page have that ‘permanent teenager’ look that belongs in Scream 4, not high-level action.
• “The Kids Are All Right” – A Lifetime movie dressed up by the presence of real actors and passed through to this round as the token LGBT nomination.
• “The King's Speech” – Something tells me that the royal family is secretly funding all of these sympathetic portrayals of the current royal line to cover up their collusion in controlling the world drug trade. Maybe that something is a Lyndon Larouche pamphlet.
• “127 Hours” – The lesson is…update your facebook status before you go camping.
• “The Social Network” – If this were an award for best preview, this is the movie of the decade. Perfectly enjoyable, I doubt this is a film that has much staying power as anything other than how we see Mark Zuckerberg for the rest of his obscenely wealthy life.
• “Toy Story 3” – I’m that guy that didn’t love this movie. Pixar’s genius comes from its boundless creativity. I’m impressed that they’ve squeezed so much juice out of this orange, but I prefer their more exotic flavors.
• “True Grit” – I am bound to thoroughly enjoy any Coen Brothers movie, so I’ll focus on my criticisms. I found this one jumped around too much in tone between their silly movies and their serious movies. It also seemed to have been trimmed too close – some of the actors deserved more screen time and there aren’t enough of their trademark set-pieces in the back half of the film. Also it ends on an unnecessarily flat note that I can’t be convinced to like - their third consecutive abrupt and unsatisfying ending and the one with the least artistic purpose behind it.
• “Winter's Bone" – I guess we have to keep nominating dramas or no one will ever make any. A good solid film but nothing more.

SHOULD WIN: Black Swan
WILL WIN: The Social Network – I’m going for the dark horse candidate because I just have to hope that somehow Hollywood’s destructive addiction to British period drama cannot long endure.

Directing
• “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
• “The Fighter” David O. Russell
• “The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
• “The Social Network” David Fincher
• “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan. Inception was directorial origami. Of these 5, I’d say Aronofsky deserves to win.
WILL WIN: David Fincher – I’m a fan, he’s due.

The Daniel Day Lewis Actor in a Leading Role Award
• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful” is Hispanic and brooding in that foreign language film no one saw. This nomination screams, “token diversity nomination.” Someone get Denzel out of his latest train-related film and into a real role. Mr. Bardem already won for No Country and he’s married to Penelope Cruz so I can’t imagine he’ll be heartbroken when he loses.
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit” is the John Wayne Dude. No matter where he goes or who he plays, no matter how layered up with scotch and grit, Jeff Bridges will always be The Dude.
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network” is the snarky kid from Zombieland…and about to be the richest man in the world. This is a script-derived nomination, you can’t tell if this guy is acting. I have no clue where he will be in 10 years – he’s one of those people you can never picture as a grown man even though he’s probably 30 already. He should be in Scream 4 too.
• LL Col Firth in “The King's Speech” is an unstoppable freight-train of Oscarness – English, royalty, disability. Bonus points for being named Colin. I do not understand why all of my female friends are in love with Colin Firth. To me, he looks a lot like a young Michael Caine and I expect the same career arc.
• James Franco in “127 Hours” is a man trapped under a rock…left on screen, alone for roughly an hour, Franco carries an unsellable concept. I have to be honest, I thought he was career-killing abysmal in the Spider Man movies. I was wrong - he's kind of cool and likable.

SHOULD WIN: James Franco
WILL WIN: Colin Firth

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Christian Bale in “The Fighter” is the lead as a cracked out boxer with a regional accent, but gets called the supporting actor because the movie was technically about Markie Mark’s character.
• John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone” is a much less famous actor also playing a cracked out man with a regional accent.
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town” may or may not be cracked out, has a regional accent, and robs banks.
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right” is wandering around in a post-cracked-out daze when he discovers his sperm was used to inseminate two lesbians. Queue emotional diarrhea and confused looks that could be interpreted to be a California accent.
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech” is not cracked out, but is Australian, so he kind of acts like it.

SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale
WILL WIN: Geoffrey Rush – I figure Christian Bale is generally disliked.

The Meryl Streep Actress in a Leading Role Award
• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right” is unnervingly convincing as the…more masculine member of a lesbian couple. I’m not up on what the allowable term is. Bull-lesbian? Blesbian? Anyways, if I’m Warren Beatty, I have to be wondering.
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole” is someone that old academy voters want to see show up in a dress.
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone” is affecting as a tough girl in a rough place.
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” is deeply affecting as a soft girl in a rough place.
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine” is in this year’s well-regarded love story movie.

SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman
WILL WIN: Natalie Portman.

Actress in a Supporting Role
• Amy Adams in “The Fighter” is unnervingly convincing as a semi-trashy bartendress. I’m impressed, definitely not Enchanted.
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech” imbues an aimless depiction of a dull queen with her limitless screen presence.
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” is understandably convincing as a semi-trashy mom.
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit” is inexplicably named a supporting actress in a movie that’s about her. Anyways, a sharp performance in a year full of strong female performances.
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom” is supposed to be good in the movie that Netflix didn’t deliver in time.

SHOULD WIN: Steinfeld.
WILL WIN: Jacki Weaver. Has that indie buzz, plus she’s English.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

GIMMICKLESS OSCAR PREVIEW 2010-11: DAY 3

The Other Awards (i.e. why the broadcast takes so long). On the subject, has anyone thought that this thing might better be made a 3 day affair. Technical awards day 1, these awards that no one cares about day 2, big names day 3. We'd all get to bed at a more reasonable hour. Except for the writers, who deserve garlands thrown at their feet.

Animated Feature Film
• “How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
• “The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
• “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich
SHOULD WIN: Despicable Me
WILL WIN: Toy Story 3
COMMENT: Every year Pixar makes an animated film it gets nominated for best picture. No other animated film gets nominated. The result is that there is little reason not to announce the winner in advance. That said, I never dug the Toy Story films. Despicable Me was more fun and funnier. In fact, I sort of preferred Tangled to all these films as well.

Art Direction
• “Alice in Wonderland”
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
• “Inception”
• “The King's Speech”
• “True Grit”
SHOULD WIN: Tron Legacy – I'm not an art expert, but I know what I like. No one can honestly say that any of the nominated films have the same iconic imagery that Tron Legacy will be remembered for. I should also send some love out to Tangled's lantern scene...I'd use the word magical...but I'm a grown man.
WILL WIN: The King’s Speech – An English period piece. They just can’t help themselves.

Cinematography
• “Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
• “Inception” Wally Pfister
• “The King's Speech” Danny Cohen
• “The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
• “True Grit” Roger Deakins
SHOULD WIN: The Book of Eli - Terrific use of color and the attention to detail in masking the twist was award-worthy. Also, The American could also use a bit of nomination-love.
WILL WIN: The King’s Speech

Costume Design
• “Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood
• “I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi
• “The King's Speech” Jenny Beavan
• “The Tempest” Sandy Powell
• “True Grit” Mary Zophres
SHOULD WIN: I confess I neither know nor care. As anyone who has seen my wardrobe can attest, the answer is, “Not Justin.”
WILL WIN: The King’s Speech

Documentary (Feature)
• “Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
• “Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
• “Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
• “Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
• “Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
SHOULD WIN: Waiting for Superman. Hollywood is a huge union town, so there was no way the year's obvious winner was going to get nominated for calling out the teacher's union for holding back meaningful educational reform even if it was made by an arts community dynasty (Guggenheims).
WILL WIN: Inside Job. Hollywood is not as big of a Wall Street town

Visual Effects
• “Alice in Wonderland”
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
• “Hereafter”
• “Inception”
• “Iron Man 2”
SHOULD WIN: Prince of Persia: Sands of Time. I know that the words would choke in the presenter's mouth, but again, this isn't an award for best script.
WILL WIN: Inception - The only blockbuster to live up to the hype this year has to win at least one token award.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
• “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
• “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
• “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
• “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
SHOULD WIN: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
WILL WIN: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
COMMENT: Sorkin's a big name and there was plenty of sharp dialog to earn him his trophy.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
• “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
• “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
• “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
• “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
• “The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler
SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan - Inception
WILL WIN: Christopher Nolan – Inception – It’s such a clever idea, so well executed. It would be a shame if it got lost in the King’s stuttering Speech.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

DAY 2 OF THE ONLY REAL OSCAR'S REVIEW:

WORST BIG NAME MOVIE:
- Alice in Wonderland – Alice is always a challenge because it has no real plot and is loaded with period references that have no bearing on the modern world. Faced with this challenge, Disney gave it the Hero with a Thousand Faces treatment. The magic of the original book is believed to have been accidentally locked in the supply shed for the Country Bear Vacation Hoedown.
- Edge of Darkness – When you’re as reviled as Mel Gibson has become and you insist on continuing to make movies, every line has to be a shot across the bow of anyone who dares question your talent. Instead, Gibson appears to have extended a withered olive branch on corporate greed. If he wants back in, he should just go ahead and make a reverential Holocaust movie. If not, he should take a page out of Brock Lesnar’s book and double down on being Hollywood’s renegade villain.
- Grown Ups – What if we got several slightly past-peak comedians together and they all decided to not be that funny for 2 hours? Somehow, no one’s flagging career arc was altered.
- Killers – This movie is an interesting experiment in what happens when you have nearly an hour of set-up for a movie that has no plot. Anyways, it was nice to see Tom Selleck’s mustache grimacing on the big screen again.
- Harry Potter Part 7 Part 1 – A gorgeous two hour picture book for vacationing in rural England. A brilliant time to cash in, knowing that it’s too late in the series to kill fan interest in the films with a dud. And oh what a dud. As the one person on earth who has never read a line written by J.K. Rowling, I assure you that as a stand alone movie, this was a disaster of Baron Von Munchausen proportions.

WINNER: Harry Potter Part 7 Part 1. (CAUTION: I was not able to view The Tourist for the purposes of this review. I’m told it’s a strong contestant.)

OUTRIGHT WORST MOVIE:
- I’m Still Here. Joaquin Phoenix memorably grew a beard and went all Fear & Loathing on Letterman, then announcing a move into rapping about 4 years after the shock humor of white guys rapping poorly stopped being funny. This is the sort of career move that makes Andy Kaufman’s 'wrestling women' idea look like Sinatra landing the supporting role in From Here to Eternity. Casey Affleck, circling the drain that his brother Ben recently escaped from, decided to make a semi-planned mockumentary. Put it all together and you have several hours of unwatchable footage of a blathering, coked out hobo bleeding money.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT:
- Dinner for Schmucks – If we learned one thing from The Cable Guy, it's that funny people can go too far and just be creepy. Dinner for Schmucks' creative team did not see The Cable Guy.
- The Expendables – I gave the preview a standing ovation. I had this idea plus Jackie Chan a decade ago. However, my version did not involve B movie action and no wit.
- The Fighter – For anyone who loves boxing, the Gatti-Ward fights are the definition of the sport at its best. So in making a movie about Mickey Ward, one might reasonably expect a climax with at least the first Gatti-Ward fight. Instead, I left the theater wondering if there was going to be a sequel.
- Knight & Day – Tom Cruise can do whatever he wants at this point in his career. But given his bizarre, extremely public mania, the creepy stalker spy movie idea is kind of like Michael Jackson writing a song about child abuse.
- Secretariat – The underlying rhythm of any pet movie is the animal. For dogs, it’s family. For cats, it’s mystery. In the case of horses, it’s the majesty of the animal. Instead, the horse of all horses spends very little time on camera while we receive a lesson in small business. The worst moment has to be the muted, lo-fi audio knock off of Chic Anderson’s epic, “Tremendous Machine,” call. Given how badly the endings to the year’s top sports movies were botched, it's no wonder LA still doesn't have a football team.

WINNER: The Expendables. Much like Joe Gibbs’ comeback, sometimes the game is too far past you to get caught up.

MOST UNNECESSARY SEQUEL:
- Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore – Couldn’t this have gone straight to video?
- Little Fockers – After you make one bad sequel, you stop.
- Saw VII – Saw came out in 2004. We have not had a Saw-less year since. Saw 3D was actually billed “The Final Chapter”. Can this madness be stopped?
- Step Up 3D – The unintended consequence of the 3D phenomenon was that every bad movie with a worse sequel had an excuse to make number 3.
- Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps – This wasn’t a bad idea, or even a bad movie. But the ending, with a redeemed Michael Douglas, kills the whole concept. This movie screams for a, “There Will Be Blood” ending – Gecko back on top, remorseless and enthroned, drinking Shia's milk shake. Instead, money goes to sleep in a tidy, focus-group tested, cliché-Hollywood crib.

WINNER: Little Fockers. I think this movie was made only because someone thought the title was funny.

MOST SURPRISINGLY WATCHABLE:
- Fighting
- Karate Kid
- MacGruber
- Predators
- She’s Out of My League
WINNER: Predators. I was sure this franchise was dead and buried. Who knew that Adrien the Kissing Bandit could resurrect it?

BEST LINE TO QUOTE WITHOUT REMORSE:
“We push ourselves, we work around the clock.” “I ALREADY WORK AROUND THE CLOCK!”
– Extraordinary Measures

RUNNER UP: “What’s your number? I find most guys on Wall Street have a specific number in mind of how much they make before they walk away.” “More.”
– Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

BEST TWIST:
- The Book of Eli
- Inception
- The Other Guys
- Salt
- Shutter Island
WINNER: The Book of Eli. Inception and Salt are nothing but twist, so you can’t pin down that big twist at the end. Shutter Island has you waiting for the twist all movie long. The Other Guys throws the twist at you at the beginning (and it’s damn good). The Book of Eli gets the twist right – you never see it coming.

WILDLY OVERPLAYED CLICHÉ OF THE YEAR:

- Hot girl/old lady as ninja action star. In the 90’s, feminism finally began sniping at the walls of action films, questioning the time-honored damsel-in-distress story line. The result was an early generation of avante guard female actions stars - Sarah Connor, anything with Gina Davis - large or buff women who looked like they could plausibly kick ass, but still lost a fight on occasion. Slowly the plots were rewritten to make the damsel kick ass of her own accord. A few creative cinematographers hit on the now standard sexual image of a little hot girl toting a big gun. Here we are, 2010, uzi-ed with one 80-pound waif after another foisted on us as the second coming of Bruce Lee. Perhaps a rundown of the more implausible action moments from this year to demonstrate the scope of the problem:
o Mia Wasikowska slays the Jabberwocke in Alice in Wonderland
o Thekla Reuten as ace assassin in The American
o Mila Kunis as incorrigible tough girl in The Book of Eli
o Gemma Arterton kicking ridiculous classical ass in Clash of the Titans AND Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
o Every computer animation movie
o Scarlet Johanssen randomly takes on a room full of bad guys in Iron Man 2 because, oh by the way, she's also a super hero.
o Zoe Saldana fires guns that weigh more than she does in The Losers
o Whatever was going on in Resident Evil
o That Scott Pilgrim thing has a lot of ninja girls...and super mario coins.
o Maid Marion is reinvented as Legolas in Robin Hood
o Angelina can beat up anyone anytime anywhere in any movie

It’s not that I disapprove of strong female characters – there can be ninja girls thrown in with damsels in equal measure. My concern is more the believability. We rightfully demand that male action stars look like they can beat people up. The same should be true for girls. I am sure that there are females in this world who can kick my ass. I cannot be convinced that Scarlet Johanssen is one of them.

The nadir of this phenomenon is in the movie Red, in which the lovely Helen Mirren is pawned off on us as the world’s greatest assassin. At the movie’s climax, Mirren is filmed gingerly prancing away from a gunfight…we are told this is sprinting. It’s not Ms. Mirren’s fault that she cannot move much faster than an inch-worm. Perhaps the gunmen were too busy laughing to take aim. My point is, when the script says "sprints away from gunfight," part of the acting is looking like you can sprint.

Monday, February 21, 2011

The No-Gimmick 2010-11 Oscars Review: Day 1

Kicking off my annual oscars review.

MOST IMPLAUSIBLE CONCEPT OR INADVERTENTLY RIDICULOUS MOMENT:
- Brooklyn’s Finest: Richard Gere is a tough Brooklyn cop. That hamster story chases you in every role.
- Just Wright – An NBA player goes for something other than looks.
- Legion – Paul Bettany is an action super hero.
- Valentine’s Day – Jessica Biel has trouble finding a date on Valentine’s Day. I’m sure America’s unwillingly single women are sympathetic.
- Wolfman – Benecio Del Toro and Anthony Hopkins, prepping for their final werewolf battle, realize that the audience won’t be able to tell which one is which, so they go shirts and skins.
WINNER: Valentine's Day. Memo to Hollywood casting departments: Jessica Biel is hot.

BEST GRATUITOUS CASH-IN ON 3D PHENOMENON:
- Jack Ass 3D

TROY MCCLURE AWARD FOR ANONYMOUS UBIQUITY: Josh Duhamel.

“Hi kids, you might remember me from such 2010 Romantic Comedies as ‘The Romantics,’ ‘When in Rome,’ and ‘Life As We Know It,’ as well as my supporting romcom side-plot role in ‘Ramona and Beezus.’ As a result, I was paid millions of dollars to make out with Ginnifer Goodwin, Kristen Bell, Katie Holmes, Anna Paquin, and Katherine Heigl, at the mere cost of my soul and an increased risk of mononucleosis.”

This man has no conscience. But he would make a great star on TV’s The Batchelor.

On the topic, the following is the year in concept Romantic Comedy. Since I can’t be bothered to watch any of these movies for target-audience related reasons, I have provided a brief synopsis of what happens based on sitting through previews and/or looking at movie posters:

2010: THE YEAR IN CONCEPT ROMCOM:
The Back-Up Plan – Boy meets girl. Girl is pregnant already without knowing it. Existential crisis. Draw little arrow thingies on movie poster to demonstrate twist on normal love story. Hijinx hijinx hijinx. They fall in love and live happily ever after.

The Bounty Hunter – Boy is bounty-hunter. Ex-girlfriend breaks law and he is assigned to snare her. Hijinx, alternative music ensue. They re-fall in love and live happily ever after.

Charlie St. Cloud – Boy meets girl. Boy killed brother. Somehow this conflicts with the girl, who is in existential crisi. Boy falls in love and saves girl from dying like brother. They live happily ever after with dead brother and alternative music. Tagline: “Life is for Living”. No kidding.

Eat Pray Love – Woman is bitterly unhappy in marriage, cue existential crisis. Divorces boy. Travels the world to find herself. Hijinx ensue. Meets other boys, rinse and repeat.

How Do You Know – Girl is with guy, causing existential crisis for no apparent reason…old flame rolls in…cue alternative music - that's how you know.

Just Wright – Queen Latifa convinces an NBA player that there’s more to woman than what’s on the outside. It’s a healthy dose of sarcasm that counts.

Leap Year – Girl wants to marry commitment-lite boy. Obscure European tradition related to love holds solution. Somehow she ends up chasing her corporate boy in rural Ireland, meets charming local. Existential crisis ensues.

Letters to Juliet – Girl uncovers obscure European tradition involving love letters. Decides to ditch vacation and resolve love story revealed in stolen mail, meeting boy, alternative music in process. Happily Ever After ensues.

Love & Other Drugs – Evil drug salesman boy meets untamed patient girl. They fall in love and learn life lessons. There may or may not be alternative music.

When in Rome – Girl in existential crisis discovers obscure European tradition related to love. Meets boys. They all fall in love with her. Cue alternative music, hijinx.

THE NICHOLAS CAGE AWARD FOR BIGGEST SELLOUT:
- Nicholas Cage – Sorcerer’s Apprentice – The award isn’t named after him because he DOESN’T do at least one of these paycheck films per year.
- Jackie Chan – The Spy Next Door – I appreciate how hard it is to find roles in your non-native language. I do not appreciate Jackie Chan starring in The Spy Next Door.
- Brendan Fraser - Furry Vengeance – Fraser has yet to be type-cast and, with success in several genres, is a darkhorse bet for a late career Tom Hanks run of well-regarded dramas. However, Furry Vengeance ups the odds that he is simply nearing a premature end.
- Dwayne The Rock Johnson – The Tooth Fairy – You were supposed to be the chosen one! Arnold’s successor. Why?
- Owen Wilson – Marmaduke – I find Wilson hard to criticize between the suicide attempt and the general likeability. Instead, I will merely point out that, to my knowledge, this is the only non-Garfield comic strip to make the jump into low-rent family comedy film. Thank God Bill Waterson has kept Calvin & Hobbes pristine.
WINNER: The Rock.

2010’s BEST INADVERTENT PORN TITLES:
- 8: The Mormon Proposition
- Country Strong
- Winter’s Bone
- Despicable Me
- How to Train Your Dragon
- I’m Still Here
- You Again
- Faster
- Alice in Wonderland
- 127 Hours
WINNER: All of us.

MOVIES I AM LEAST LIKELY TO EVER SEE:
- Burlesque – Wasn’t one Showgirls enough?
- For Colored Girls – It’s not called, “For Colored Girls and Justin”
- Greenberg – Do we really need another neurotic Jewish guy existential crisis movie? Didn’t Woody Allen have this covered?
- Gulliver’s Travels – Will Jack Black ever be funny again? I’m starting to wonder whether he was ever funny in the first place.
- Sex & The City 2 – That target audience thing again.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

What's Wrong with Qatar Part 2: What Will They Do?

Assuming one million people can find somewhere to stay in Qatar, we get to the real problem with Qatar: what are 1 million soccer hooligans going to do in a tee-totaling desert fairy-tale town in the middle of the summer.

#1 Qatar is hot. No seriously - the average temperature May to November is over 95 degrees farenheit. During the core normal world cup summer months, the AVERAGE is well over 100. Now, supposedly all of the stadiums are going to be refrigerated. But you cannot air-condition the whole country. Is the entire fan base going to spend their day in their hotel room?

#2 They might have to because Qatar doesn't have enough bars for them to drink at. Soccer fans drink. A lot. Qatar limits drinking to a few hotel bars. Let's not even discuss cultural taboos against non-married couples staying in the same hotel room...FIFA's president has already told gay people to stay away. Are the women all going to have to wear hijabs?

#3 If they can't drink...what will they do? What is there to do or see in Qatar? There are only so many falcons. It's not Qatar's fault that they have no national history. Qatar will have to build a network of ludicrous tourist attractions...or just hope everyone's cool with staying on siesta.

This is really the problem. The World Cup is a big party.

Thursday, December 23, 2010

The Only True Christmas Movie Review:

By popular demand, a Christmas movie review. We'll start with special awards and dubious achievements before we get to the Top 10, using my special Christmas movie scale.

TOP 5 Non-Christmas Movies Set During Christmas:
5. Gremlins
4. The Ref
3. Love, Actually
2. Die Hard
1. The Godfather: Part 1

TOP 5 VERSIONS OF THE CHRISTMAS CAROL:
Scrooge

That is all. No one should make an alternative. Yes, including the Muppets - anything with the rats in it is NOT a real muppet anything. Which brings me to...

JIM CARREY'S WAR ON CHRISTMAS
Does Jim Carrey like Christmas or hate it? He's played two versions of Christmas's most dastardly redeemed curmudgeons, both in miserable remakes of classics. Is this part of a broader campaign? Is he some sort of anti-Christmas 5th Column sent here by Jack Skellington to undermine all we hold sacred and dear? Speaking of which...

WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT ABOUT?
The Nightmare Before Christmas. Bursting with creativity, sure, but what was the assumed audience for a Goth-emo stop motion claymation musical about a depressed monster taking down Christmas?

THE CHRISTMAS MOVIES WE'RE MISSING:
- Anything worth watching that's about the nativity
- A good nutcracker movie
- A Calvin & Hobbes Christmas special.

THE CHRISTMAS CLASSIC THAT ACTUALLY SUCKS:
It's a Wonderful Life.
First of all, it's a Christmas movie with no Christmas cheer, no Santa, and no Christ. "No Mas!" A movie about broken dreams, two hours of misery, this film is a lodestone on every Christmas.

THE 30-POINT SCALE OF CHRISTMAS-MOVIE-NESS
- Nostalgia Factor - 10 Points - Every Christmas movie is, above all, valued for its belovedness. No matter the movie's original quality, what makes a great Christmas movie is how much it has come to be loved, because it reminds us of when Christmas was best - when we were children.
- Christmas-ness Factor - 10 Points - Another vital point is for the Christmas movie to be about Christmas. There are a lot of factors to hit on, and few movies can cover them all, but without a bit of Santa saving the day, a bit of snow-related magic, and a nod to the notion that the holiday is about the whole Jesus thing, it cannot be a complete Christmas movie.
- Quality - 10 Points - Some accounting must be made for whether, unbiased by nostalgia, the movie in question is any good.

FOR EXAMPLE:

THE WORST LEGIT CHRISTMAS MOVIE OF ALL:
Jingle All the Way:
Nostalgia = 0
Christmass-ness = 0
Quality = 0
Christmas Score = 0 - The functional equivalent of a pink bunny suit.
Anytime you make a comedy that's not funny, you're going to have problems. Then there's the fact that every Arnold movie has that weird thing where you think, "Why doesn't anyone in the movie notice or remark on the fact that he's ultra-buff and has a thick Austrian accent? Anyway, lots of Christmas movies are bad. The question is how you get the Christmas part this wrong. A movie built to mock Christmas commercialism ends up celebrating it. The point, as in Christmas Story, is the KID chasing the toy, not the dad. Moreover, the point is NOT that EVERY kid wants SOME toy, it's that ONE kid wants THE toy that just they want. Santa does not save the day...he tries to ruin it. The only person there to save the day is dad, dressed up as Generic Superhero. The kid is obnoxious. Indeed, the target of any good Christmas movie HAS to be the kid, not adults, because that's how you create nostalgia in the first place. The bow on top of this steaming Mr. Hankee of a Christmas movie is a generic title than pollutes a perfectly lovely Christmas carol without actually referencing it in any way.

BEFORE WE BEGIN, THE CHRISTMAS MOVIES I HAVE NOT SEEN ARE:
- Babes in Toyland
- Scrooged
- Bad Santa
- Emmett Otter's Jug-band Christmas
- Polar Express
- Any second tier black and white Christmas movie

The Christmas Movie by Decade:
40's = It's A Wonderful Life - Christmas is rough, just like everything else. Just stick it out.
50's = White Christmas - Christmas is pristine, generic and good in a sweater-wearing, banal sort of way.
60's = Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer - Christmas is about you being a special little snowflake despite the fact that you're a freak and an embarrassment to your family.
70's = Emmett Otter's Jugband Christmas - Christmas is weird because it's the 70's.
80's = A Christmas Story - Christmas is about America, and a disappointing toy.
90's = Home Alone - Christmas is about, "Maybe my family's alright."
00's = Elf - Christmas is about the naive magic of the season in a cynical era.

WITHOUT FURTHER ADO, the CHRISTMAS MOVIE TOP 10
10. Frosty the Snowman - 17 Christmas points
Nostalgia = 7
Christmas-ness = 7
Quality = 3
This was my favorite as a kid. I watched it again...it's bad. A down-on his luck magician gets his hat stolen by some kids who then drag him to the ends of the earth to avoid giving it back to him. That's a good lesson. And why do they do this? So that they can instead play with an imaginary Christmas invention who looks like the Michelin man and is dumb enough to hide in a green house, when in fact, he could just hide IN THE SNOW! Worse still, the song was only created because Gene Autry was looking for a second Christmas hit. Who cares...Frosty's a fixture now, Santa randomly wanders into the movie in the end and saves the day, and the villain is terrifying to children. I'm giving an extra Christmas-ness half point assuming that the reason Frosty says "Happy Birthday" when he appears is some bizarre attempt to get at the Jesus angle.

9. Home Alone 2: Lost in New York - 18 Christmas Points
Nostalgia: 4
Christmasness: 6
Quality: 8
The best Christmas sequel, this movie was surprisingly good. Lots of love for Christmas in New York, bits of Christmas magic here-and-there...and a strange woman with pidgeons. If they made another Home Alone, maybe the pidgeon lady could be Mike Tyson?

8. Miracle on 34th Street - 19 Christmas Points
Nostalgia: 6
Christmasness: 8
Quality: 5
Nostalgia for this film is watered down by a series of questionable remakes, points it makes up by putting the Big Guy front and center. Let's discuss some of the more questionable plot points here though: Santa's benevolent benefactor is Macy's, which we're somehow led to believe leads a revolution in Christmas-love-in-ness by sending shoppers to other stores. Even stranger, Santa Claus reaches back, slugs the psychologist, and is later freed of charges of being crazy but never punished for assault. MERRY CHRISTMAS!!! Still, even the terrorists smile when the postal workers march into the court room.

7. Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer - 20 Christmas Points
Nostalgia: 8
Christmasness: 8
Quality: 4
Everyone loves Rudolph, but again, some questions need to be asked. An elf who wants to become a dentist? Whaaaaaaa? There are lots of other Reindeer who don't make the cut...what happens to them? And some non-Frosty snowman named Sam, who is not abominable, is our narrator. And then we jump the polar version of the shark, to a rogue abominable snowman and meet a collection of bizarre characters, which might better be christened "Christmas Characters Begging for Cynical Millenials to make Youtube shorts about them," such as Yukon Cornelius, and King Moonracer, who has the audacity to throw the freaks off freak island. Anyway, crossing back into core Christmas territory, Rudolph finds his parents' love and helps Santa save Christmas. Queue classic song.

6. A Charlie Brown Christmas - 21 Christmas Points
Nostalgia: 10
Christmasness: 9
Quality: 2
So Peanuts was never funny. As a movie, this Christmas special is shockingly dull. But as soon as you hear a few bars from the piano bit at the beginning, it IS Christmas. On top of that, it hits all of the essential moral lessons of Christmas movies, about the importance of friendship and community. That plus it is the only major Christmas special that takes on the Jesus thing. As a child, the undigested Jesus lecture was bizarre and out of place. And it still is. But I like that...maybe Charles Schulz was saying something about Christmas, the way the Jesus thing gets dropped in, as an oh yeah.

5. Elf - 22 Christmas points and climbing
Nostalgia: 3
Christmasness: 10
Quality: 9
This one is only limited by how new it is and how well it ages. At base, it's just a good movie, and nicely gets at a schmaltzy Christmas message that will serve it well in time. Really, though, this movie is just in love with Christmas magic. I'm predicting Elf will climb near the top as the years pass.

4. Home Alone - 23 Christmas points
Nostalgia: 7
Christmasness: 8
Quality: 8
Another movie that goes right for the family/Christmas jugular. The magic of the film is that Christmas is this real thing that makes wishes come true. In a rare touch, he does go to church and all. And just when you're having lots of fun, they throw in a John Candy Planes, Trains, and Automobiles interlude. Plus Santa is sort of in the movie in the form of Boo Radley light.

3. Scrooge - 24 Christmas points
Nostalgia: 9
Christmasness: 7
Quality: 8
Say what you will about the campy musical numbers, the wandering pace, the general 70's-ness of everyone's side burns, it is a hard heart that has never shed a tear for Tiny Tim on that beautiful Christmas morning.

2. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - 26 Christmas points
Nostalgia: 10
Christmasness: 8
Quality: 8
The one weird 60's cartoon that is actually ridiculously good. As above, every time I see this, I wish someone would do for Bill Waterson what this did for Dr. Seuss.

1. A Christmas Story - 30 Christmas Points
Nostalgia: 10
Christmasness: 10
Quality: 10
This movie is Christmas. It has become more Christmas than advent calendars and eggnog. It's really funny, it has literary aspects, and it pegs Christmas for everyone in the family. As you get older, you come to know everyone in the family in a new way. It's helped by the fact that none of the actors are big names or beauties...this could be any family in America and it is. The race for this award was never close and probably never will be.

BONUS: THE ONLY GREAT NEW YEARS' MOVIE:
The Hudsucker Proxy. Watch it every year. OK, so When Harry Met Sally is also good.

Sunday, December 05, 2010

WORLD CUP 2022 – FIASCO IN THE MAKING

So Qatar got (bought?) the World Cup. May it live to regret it.

The pitch was that they would build 12 air-conditioned stadiums and then give that technology and the materials away to construct 3rd world soccer stadiums. It’s a charming pitch, so much so that I could envision why the FIFA voting board, stocked with internationalists from the 3rd world, would be moved by the Emir’s benevolence.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions, (and perhaps a few well-placed bribes serve as bypasses). What is actually going to happen? Qatar has 200,000 citizens and about 1.2 million guest-workers. Qatar’s security forces are staffed almost entirely by Omani conscripts. Qatar receives about 1 million tourist visits per year – by comparison, South Africa took in 1 million visitors for the 2010 World Cup in 1 month. This is a massive administrative challenge and the assumption seems to be that the Qataris are wealthy enough to spend away any problems.

Are there limits to the power of oil money? This is the first in a series of posts on what those limits might be.

Where will they stay?
Let’s assume that Qatar’s international airport can take everyone in – after all, if one thing is good about Qatar, it’s the airline. Where are these people going to stay? One might assume that Qatar can spend its way to enough hotel rooms in 12 years. But let’s not underestimate the challenge. As of 2009, Qatar had about 8500 hotel rooms. By 2012, that number is projected to grow, based on in-construction hotels, to about 10,700 hotel rooms.

One does not have to have mastered calculus to be concerned about the ratio of available units to people. Let’s say that Qatar should expect 1 million visitors over 1 month. Let’s say each visitor stays an average of 1/3 of a month and shares a room with 1 other person, on average. By that estimate, Qatar would need about 167,000 hotel rooms. I restate – in 2012, it will have 10,700. In other words, conservatively, Qatar will have to add 1.5 times as many hotel rooms as it currently has EVERY YEAR FOR 10 YEARS starting in 2012 just to meet World Cup demand. These hotel rooms will be relevant for 30 days, after which they will be completely superfluous. Even for a Gulf State, that is an epic waste of money, assuming they can pull it off.

But if they cannot, what are their options?

- Neighboring countries:
o Saudi Arabia is the only country that shares a border with Qatar. It is difficult to conceive of the Saudis relaxing their strong visa and social interaction restrictions to let World Cup revelers pass back and forth.
o Bahrain – the neighborhood party town, Bahrain will undoubtedly bear a large burden in absorbing the influx of travellers. Even still, this will create visa complications and force travellers to take ferries to games in large volumes. Moreover, Bahrain is simply not large enough by itself to make up the difference in needed hotel rooms to actual rooms.
o It’s possible, indeed highly desirable, that Qatar would reach out to the United Arab Emirates’ massive tourist facilities for help. But the two do not share a border. Perhaps Qatar will be forced to arrange for wide-ranging ferry services for those seeking to attend games.
o Iran is the only other country within reasonable distance, lying across the Persian Gulf. It is difficult to project the political trajectory of Iran 14 years out, but it is difficult to imagine a large contingent of the world’s soccer fans taking up residence in the sparsely populated Iranian coastal region to endure lengthy ferry rides to games.
o The final possibility is that Qatar can try to set up some system of flying people in and out of regional cities to games, which adds prohibitively to the cost and makes the airport the bottleneck.

- Refugee Camps – Ok, this is a bit of hyperbole, but honestly, Qatar’s only option may be to put up temporary shelter and offer it for free. Perhaps large ships will be allowed to dock and act as floating hotels. Given the summer heat and the general lack of things to do in Qatar, one could quickly imagine these camps and boats becoming dens of heat exhaustion or worse.

- Fewer visitors. The final, most likely option, is that the lack of places to stay and the other problems with the choice of host will lead visitors to vote with their feet and simply not attend. For the most part, these are not cheap hotels and hostels that Qatar is offering. These are high-end, luxury hotels designed to operate at low occupancy rates and high prices. These prices are likely to become worse with a glut of World Cup travelers unless artificially kept low by the host government.

In the end, Qatar's best residency option may be to hope that it is so unattractive as a host - pricey, hot, and boring - that no one shows up to create a hotel crisis.

Sunday, July 11, 2010

SOUTH AFRICA TRIP: DAY 11

Flying home. No hakuna matata. I had too good of a time.

OH AFRICA: We drove to the airport...except it no longer existed. They opened a new airport right before the world cup on the opposite side of town.

WORLD CUP TIP: GO! The world's premiere sporting event. 2014 is in Brazil.

SOUTH AFRICA TIP: GO! It's great fun and not too exotic for those less adventurous.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

SOUTH AFRICA TRIP: DAY 10

Today was my other soccer game - the Netherlands vs. Japan. As before, the East Asian team was game, but came with far fewer fans. The Dutch were a fun crew.

HAKUNA MATATA: But the real highlight was the stadium in Durban. It's a work of art. It's airy, it affords views of the city, it's a neat architectural feature, and it's very functionally designed. It's right on the water and it fits in perfectly. Check it out: http://www.durban.gov.za/durban/government/spu/moses/pictures/2.Artists_impression_inside_view_Moses_Mabhida_Stadium.jpg

After the game we wandered around Durban's remaining highlights - grabbed some bunny chow down on the docks, dropped by uShaka Marine World, and witnessed a bit more lively fan fest down on the beach, including a drunken fan yelling, "AYOBA" at everyone he came across. Now that's more like it!

OH...AFRICA: All of the street signs in Durban are crossed out and have new names. The city used to have several streets named after Afrikans figures which the provincial government have since renamed after revolutionary heroes...just in time for the World Cup. However, no one can get around anymore, the Garmand hasn't been updated, so as a concession, the provincial government left up all of the old signs, and just puts big red X's over the old street names.

WORLD CUP TIP: If you don't care for the soccer, then check out the stadiums beforehand and pick one out that seems fetching. The stadium alone was at least worth driving to Durban for.

JUSTINE'S TIPS ON SOUTH AFRICA: Durban has waves. Take advantage of them. (I failed at this task...I know, I know...I've never met a wave I didn't like.)
SOUTH AFRICA TRIP DAY 9: To Durban

HAKUNA MATATA: A long, beautiful drive from Johannesburg to Durban. The mountains are beautiful. Our original plan was to drive to Rorke's Drift to see the famous Zulu War battlefield, but unfortunately South Africa is much bigger than it appears on the map. Instead, we did a drive by of some of the Boer War battlefields, took the Midlands Meander route, checked out a big waterfall, and then got ourselves to Durban.

Durban is a lot like Miami - great in the winter, awful in the summer. Art deco abounds. On the other hand, it is also a huge port city with all of the attendant commerce and crime and thus has a bit of a Baltimore feel as well. This is where Ghandi and the indian population makes its home. They also have the best signs, welcoming all of the teams playing in the area with their country's version of hello - such as Australia, which receives a 'G'day'.

We drove over to the famous blue lagoon and picked up some Indian food, then took a walk along the beach. Then we headed off to a fun little aviary with exotic birds from around the world. Unfortunately, Durban was pretty dead on a Friday night, so after a bit more exploring, we turned in early.

OH, AFRICA: South Africa no longer accepts its own 200 Rand note because it was so easily and commonly counterfeited that it was impossible to continue its use.

WORLD CUP TIP: Fan fests are apparently for the POST game. We went tonight, the night before the game, and there was nobody there.

JUSTINE'S SOUTH AFRICA TIPS: When swiping your credit card, they must bring the swiper to you. Don't let anyone wander off with your credit card.